扬州大学教师个人主页服务平台 Jin Tao--Home-- 我国粮食台阶增长的构成因素分解

金涛正高级

Tao Jin is an associate professor of Yangzhou University, her current research focuses on tempo-spatial variation of cultivated land use and grain production at regional scale. Her policy proposal on "developing paddy field resources in southern China and enhancing China's comprehensive grain output capacity" was listed as a collective proposal of China Democratic League in the th...Detials

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我国粮食台阶增长的构成因素分解

Release time:2021-08-24 Hits:

Impact Factor:3.133
Affiliation of Author(s):扬州大学农学院
Journal:农业现代化研究
Funded by:江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD）~~；
Key Words:粮食增产;台阶式;因素分解;作物单产;复种指数;粮食品种结构;粮作比;中国
Abstract:1949-2013年,我国粮食生产刚好实现5个亿t台阶的跨越。本文基于粮食产量计算公式,厘出5个产量构成因素,并运用因素分解法,评估各自对亿t增产台阶的贡献量。研究结果表明,在5个亿t台阶期中,作物单产提升始终是最主要贡献因素,以1978年为界,其对总产的贡献总体呈先增后减态势;复种指数、粮食作物品种结构以正贡献为主,至新近台阶期,两者贡献程度均明显放大,其中复种贡献量已接近于作物单产的贡献量。粮作比调整始终是最主要减产因素,耕地面积也以负贡献为主,尤其1978年后,两者负影响均较前期有明显放大,至新近台阶期达最高。结合我国粮食增产台阶的因子演变过程,探讨了未来粮食增产的可能性与可行性。
Co-author:钱俊熹,佴军
First Author:Jin Tao
Indexed by:学术论文
Correspondence Author:Jin Tao
Document Code:2016, 37(3): 476-482
Document Type:J
Volume:37
Issue:3
Page Number:476-482
ISSN No.:1000-0275
Translation or Not:no
CN No.:43-1132/S
Date of Publication:2016-05-15

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